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Illuminating Stock Market Comparisons To 1929, 1974, & 1987
REVIEWING THE LATEST EVIDENCE, SIGNALS, AND SETUPS
Recycled DeMark Counts And S&P 500 Performance
BULLISH SIGNAL APPEARED THIS WEEK
While there are some legitimate short-term concerns related to sentiment and market breadth, we also must consider the potential bullish implications of a series of extremely rare DeMark signals that have appeared on the daily chart of the S&P 500.
DeMark counts are proprietary tools from Market Studies, LLC that help identify possible trend exhaustion via a 9-13 count. In very rare instances, when trends and momentum are strong, DeMark counts are recycled. A recycled count is denoted by the blue R shown in the image below.
As of Thursday’s close the daily DeMark Combo count is being recycled. If the recycled state remains in place, it would be helpful to know:
How many times has the S&P 500’s daily DeMark Combo count been recycled since 1982?
How did the stock market perform following the recycled counts?
Given a recycled count occurs in instances marked by strong trends and momentum, we would expect a recycled count to lean bullish from an odds perspective. There have been five previous periods that featured the same signal that is currently appearing on the daily chart of the S&P 500; in every case, stocks were higher looking out one month to five years.
DeMark has four major exhaustion counts, including the Combo count covered above. The other three major DeMark exhaustion counts were recycled in recent sessions as well.
RECYCLED COUNT IS PART OF THE WEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE
The recycled count, like any other bullish or bearish form of evidence, speaks to odds. This week’s CCM weekly stock market video, due to be released Friday evening November 15, will cover other forms of evidence, including detailed comparisons to bearish periods in 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, and 2007. This week’s video will contain many important charts to help us fairly assess both sides of the bull/bear coin.
The Long-Term Message From Transportation Stocks
SIMILARITIES TO 2011-2012 AND 2015-2016
Over the past ten months, numerous developments (breadth thrusts, asset class behavior, sentiment, etc.) have told us to remain open to a bottoming-process/rally similar to action following major stock market lows in October 2011 and February 2016. After experiencing resistance at the blue line in the graph below, the Dow Jones Transportation Average finally broke out in December 2012, which provided another indication of increasing risk appetite. Following the “this looks different move” in transportation stocks, the S&P 500 tacked on an additional 50% over the next 2.4 years.
SIMILAR BREAKOUT IN 2016
The “increasing risk appetite” pattern was also in play after stocks made a major low in February 2016. The Dow Jones Transportation Average experienced resistance at the blue line below for several months before breaking out in November 2016. After the push higher in transportation stocks, the S&P 500 gained an additional 34.27% over the next 1.2 years.
SIMILAR PATTERN IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR 2018-2019
The Dow Jones Transportation Average had trouble clearing the blue line below in September 2018, April 2019, July 2019, and again in September 2019. Transportation stocks have successfully cleared the formally insurmountable line in recent sessions. The longer the breakout remains in place, the more meaningful it becomes.
HOW DID STOCKS AND BONDS PERFORM IN 2012 AND 2016?
Logic says it leans bullish when economically-sensitive transportation stocks are able to clear previous areas of multi-month resistance. Thus, we would expect growth-oriented stocks to outperform defensive-oriented bonds following breakouts similar to the ones shown above that took place in December 2012 and November 2016. Not surprisingly, that is exactly what happened in the two previous cases.
THESE CHARTS SAY THE STOCK MARKET’S POTENTIAL UPSIDE IS MUCH GREATER THAN MOST BELIEVE
This week’s CCM stock market video provides a very long-term view rarely covered on Wall Street. Since markets exhibit fractal behavior, everything we know on a daily chart also applies to every conceivable timeframe from one-minute charts to annual charts. You can draw your own conclusions after reviewing common patterns in human behavior over the past sixty-six years.
RECENT BREAKOUT ALIGNS WITH PREVIOUS SIGNALS
Numerous forms of observable evidence have been in place over the past ten months that align with the “stocks could significantly outperform bonds” message above, including data covered in the posts below:
After An Extremely Rare Move In Bonds, How Have Stocks And Bonds Performed In The Past?
The Bullish Message From The Stock/Bond Ratio
Demographic Sweet Spot Says Bull Market Could Last Until 2035